Query proof

Recover a prediction market's full price path with SQL

A Scry query pattern for reconstructing a Manifold market's probability history bet by bet, from the per-bet prob_before and prob_after fields.

Answer shape

Every Manifold bet carries the market probability before and after it, so one bounded query returns the full price path of a question.

Sources

  • Manifold

Methods

  • source-native SQL
  • per-bet state fields
  • time series

SQL

Run this through POST /v1/scry/query after inspecting GET /v1/scry/schema for current live fields.

SELECT created_at_source, prob_before, prob_after, amount, outcome
FROM manifold.bets
WHERE contract_id = '<market-id>'
  AND is_redemption = 0
ORDER BY created_at_source
LIMIT 1000;

Verification notes

  • NoteUses public Manifold bet rows with contract IDs, timestamps, amounts, and outcomes.
  • Noteis_redemption = 0 excludes share redemptions, which are not directional trades.
  • NoteNew bets land in the corpus within seconds, so the path is current when you run it.

Related sources

Query Manifold Markets with SQL The full Manifold prediction-market corpus — every market, every bet, every comment — queryable with read-only SQL and kept minutes-fresh from the live API.